“Through The Wind And The Rain”:Breeze Times, The Weather & Omitted Variables

May 2026

JHJW Consulting Ltd

Track & Field & the US Breeze-Up Scene

Buyers care about the weather at the US breeze-up sales. At the heart of the US breeze-up scene in Ocala, FL, the sales company (OBS) publishes official breeze times but also enprints contemporaneous wind direction, wind speed and ambient temperature onto the breeze footage of each horse [1].

In track & field, sprint and long-jump records are not recognised when there is a stadium tailwind of more than 2 metres per second [1]. Athletics understands a simple truth – fast race times because of help from a tailwind need treating with caution.

To underline the importance of weather at the US breeze-up sales, day one of the OBS March 2025 breeze sessions was cancelled because of inclement weather. A strong headwind was forecast for day one, and importantly, for day one only. Ideal conditions with little to no wind were forecast for subsequent breeze days. Because OBS did not want buyers drawing adverse conclusions from day one breeze times that would have been affected by the forecast headwind, the breeze session for day one was cancelled.

Breeze Surface Considerations

At Ocala, horses breeze on tapeta. In Europe, they breeze on turf. Surface temperature affects the speed of the surface on tapeta, whilst rainfall during the breeze session, sun and any wind will affect the speed of the turf surface. Assessing breeze times without taking these factors into account is akin to attempting to complete a jigsaw puzzle without a full set of pieces.

The European Experience

In Europe, it appears that little attention is paid to the collection and analysis of the effect of wind and weather on breeze times. There are far more timing gates in evidence than there are portable weather stations collecting contemporaneous wind & weather data that can be married up with breeze times. Outside of ourselves, we only see one other weather station in evidence, whereas there are often four of five sets of timing equipment being used.

Is so little attention paid because there is simply less weather at the European breeze-up sessions? Anyone attending the 2024 Craven breeze-up session would strongly disagree, experiencing hail, thunder, torrential rain, wind that swirled through a full 360 degrees and a finale of bright sunshine during the last 20 lots to breeze. Conditions were so extreme at one stage the session was suspended to give the beleaguered camera operator 10 metres up in a picker some respite from the weather.

During the Goffs UK breeze-up session in 2026, wind speeds varied enormously. Some horses breezed when wind speeds were 4mph. Some when wind speeds were more than 20mph.

There is no question that European breeze-up sessions experience just as much weather as those held in the US and if the weather matters in track & field, and matters at the US breeze-up sales, it must also matter at the European breeze-up sales.

Simply put, the magnitude of changes in wind speed & wind direction during breeze sessions must affect breeze times, and when wind speeds are high enough, to a significant degree. Our own internal analysis, using our own collected wind data, confirms this to be the case. [1]

Consequences for Breeze-Up Session Analysis

The most important consequences of not considering wind and weather when analysing breeze times include the following:

• Raw breeze times within sessions cannot directly be compared with each other unless adjustments for wind are considered;

• Breeze times from different years are not directly comparable. Imagine breeze sessions taking place at the same venue. In some years there is a tailwind. In others a headwind. Some years driving rain. Others clear blue skies. Breeze times, stride lengths, horse behaviour, and so on will all be affected, and in the absence of weather information, affect the ability to draw multi-year comparisons.

• It becomes more difficult to draw conclusions regarding the relative importance of times and other quantitative measures in forecasting subsequent ability on the racecourse. Why? Consider two horses that delivered identical athletic performances. One breezes into a tailwind, the other into a headwind. Their breeze times will be different. Stride lengths will be different. These horses in our sample will weaken the relationship between breeze times, stride lengths and ability unless wind is considered.

Essentially this is a textbook example of an ‘omitted variable’ problem in statistics. Omitted variable bias occurs when an unmeasured factor influences the dependent variable(s) and is wrongly absorbed into the observed result. Breeze times without a correction for wind fit that description neatly.

Note this isn’t a problem that can be fixed using advanced statistical techniques. Unless you have access - as we do - to historic weather, wind speeds and direction taken contemporaneously with individual breezes, your data is and always will be incomplete, and any conclusions drawn from this incomplete data will have a question mark associated with them.

Next Steps

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References

[1] Source information on request.

JHJW Wind Think Piece.pdf

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