Does Home Advantage Matter In Horse Racing?

With a focus on Japanese runners abroad

Home Advantage/Away Disadvantage in Sports

‘Home Advantage’ is a well-documented effect in team sports. In football, home teams win nearly twice as often as away teams [1]. The same effect is seen in American sports such as NFL [1]. Test matches in cricket show an even stronger home advantage, where climate is a strong influence [1]. Reasons given for home advantage include: crowd support translating into refereeing decisions favouring the home side [1], travel fatigue [1], familiarity with home stadia & environs [1]. We also know that for every home team there is an away team- for away teams, the phenomenon is ‘Away Disadvantage’. Is there such an effect in horse racing? With Japanese trained Masquerade Ball under performing in the 2026 edition of the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes held at Ascot (GB), can we point to ‘Away Disadvantage’ as a possible explanation?

Horse Racing is a Global Sport

Horse racing is a global sport. The biggest owners campaign their best horses on the global stage. Royal Ascot (UK), The Breeders’ Cup (USA), The Dubai Carnival (UAE) and Australia’s Spring & Autumn Carnivals are all meetings with an intense global appeal. But the race with the most cachet is the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (‘the Arc’) held at ParisLongchamp every Autumn.

The Importance of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

First run in 1920, winners of the Arc include Corrida, Tantieme, Ribot, Sea Bird, Mill Reef, Allez France, Alleged, Dancing Brave, Urban Sea, Montjeu, Zarkava, Sea The Stars, Treve and Enable. The list could go on, and connections of horses excluded from this list have every right to lobby for their inclusion. Arc winners typically exert a breed-shaping influence on European & global bloodstock.

Japanese Attempts to Win ‘the Arc’

Missing from this illustrious list is a Japanese bred & trained Arc winner. Winning the Arc has become a Japanese obsession [1]. Whilst they have had success campaigning the horses overseas, winning the Arc, Europe’s premier middle-distance Group One, would send a message that Japanese racing & breeding has well & truly arrived on the world stage.

Received wisdom [1] is that Japanese breeding & racing has already arrived on the world stage. If this is the case, why haven’t the Japanese broken their duck when it comes to winning any European Group One race, still less the Arc? Whilst Japanese horses El Condor Pasa (1999), Nakayama Festa (2010) & Orfevre (2012 &2013) have all finished second in the Arc, more recent attempts at winning have been much less successful [1].

Can Away Disadvantage Explain It?

We start by examining the performance of elite racehorses across the globe when they go on to race in different continents. Using racing results from 2000, we estimate the level of under-performance you can expect when travelling between continents to race. Using racing results from horses based in the major racing jurisdictions of Europe (EUR), the US (USA), Japan (JPN) & Australia (AUS), we compared their racing results when racing at home compared with racing in a different continent.

We define the following three measures to answer the ‘Away Disadvantage’ question:

Away Fixture Penalty (AFP)

• A measure that compares the peak rating a horse has achieved at home versus its peak rating overseas.

• A horse’s peak Racing Post Rating (RPR) from home races minus its best RPR in away Group/Grade One races.

• A difficult benchmark as the horse has to both travel AND achieve a career best rating.

Away Fixture Penalty Top 3 (AFP3)

• A measure that compares the average rating a horse has achieved in its best three runs versus its peak rating overseas.

• A horse’s average RPR from its best three home races minus its best RPR in away Group/Grade One races.

FinPosDiff

• A horse’s best finishing position in away Group/Grade One races minus its best finishing position at home.

• A ratings free comparison, a useful cross-check on changes in the AFP/AFP3 measures.

Dataset Information

• Our dataset comprises over 1,800 horses that have contested Group/Grade One Turf races on a different continent since the year 2000. Performance by Away Continent Only

The table above shows the performance of all horses globally when they run in G1 Turf races in a different continent from where they are trained. Results are shown for races taking place in Australia, Europe, Japan & the US and in aggregate. The table shows that overseas runners visiting Europe under-perform the least using the AFP3 measure, with horses racing in Japan under-performing the most.

The table shows there is a clear ‘Away Disadvantage’ when campaigning horses across continents. The average under performance globally is 3.7lbs using the AFP3 measure, 6.0lbs using AFP and finishing 4 places behind their best home continent finishing position. We define a ‘Global Away Disadvantage’ (GAD) to be equal to AFP3, with a value of 3.7lbs.

Performance By Home & Away Continent

We focus on the results of horses trained in JPN, USA & EUR when they travel to one of the other three continents. We show results for the entire 2000-2026 period, as well as for the two periods 2000-2015 and 2016-2026.

Travellers to Japan

Fewer than 100 horses have travelled to Japan from other continents over the last 25 years. Most of those have come from Europe, with a handful from the US.

On all three measures horses from overseas have struggled to replicate their home form, with European horses ca. 8lbs below their peak rating and performing nearly 3lbs worse than our GAD benchmark.

There is no evidence matters are improving if the last ten years are compared with the preceding fifteen, in addition, fewer horses from overseas are travelling to Japan.

Travellers to USA

By far and away the largest number of overseas raiders visit the USA. The Breeders’ Cup is largely responsible for this, and with many overseas runners taking each other on in these races, it might be expected this would impact the ‘Away Disadvantage’ measures we use. However we do not see this, with European performances ca. 1lb better than our GAD benchmark. There are far fewer Japanese runners, with their runners performing slightly below GAD.

European performance in the most recent decade is a little worse than the earlier period by ca. 1lb per horse. It is possible US turf horses are providing stiffer competition.

Travellers to Europe

Europe is generally considered to be the global powerhouse of turf racing, albeit with increasing competition from other racing jurisdictions. This, and poor prize money, likely explains the lack of overseas runners. Fewer than 100 US & Japanese horses have raced in Europe. The results are different though. Over the entire period, US horses running in Europe have outperformed our GAD by ca. 3lbs. Japanese runners have performed less well, with performances only slightly ahead of the GAD.

Examining performances in two parts, US results are improving on our FinPosDiff measure but not on AFP/AFP3. We believe this is due to an increase in the Ratings awarded to top-class US Turf race winners in recent years, making it harder for US runners to beat the GAD. The fact the FinPosDiff measure is improving is the most important consideration here.

In contrast, Japanese runners performance has deteriorated across all three measures. In the last decade they have under-performed the GAD by 3lbs, with a +3lbs over-performance in the first fifteen years. If Japanese bloodstock and racing is improving, how can this be? Possible explanations range from the best horses such as Equinox not travelling to Europe, race conditions underfoot in recent years not favouring Japanese runners, campaigning approaches that have not brought out the best in the horses. Maybe there is another reason Japanese racing is still a notch below the level of elite European racing, and the gap is not closing. One consequence of this is that Japanese Group One winners are being awarded RPR ratings a few pounds higher than they deserve.

Conclusions

• There is a ‘Global Away Disadvantage’ of between 3-4 lbs when campaigning horses across continents.

• Horses travelling from Europe & the US to Japan under-perform the most.

• The US receives the most overseas runners, with the Breeders’ Cup a huge influence.

• US horses perform well in Europe, and the direction of travel suggests more to come. Our view is that the Breeders’ Cup is a significant contributor here- it’s a truism that competing against the best improves your own performance in the long-term, maybe we are seeing the fruits of the Breeders’ Cup in the performance of US turf raiders coming to Europe.

• Japanese horses are an enigma. Recent results on the track in Europe are underwhelming, and the direction of travel is negative. However, sample sizes are small, and there are plausible excuses for a good number of the runs [1]. But recent runs must be a concern.

• For fans of ratings, recent results suggest their Group Ones are a notch below European equivalents, and it’s interesting that odds lines when their runners travel overseas support this idea.[1]

• Could Japan host a Breeders’ Cup event, with the long-term aim of their horses winning on the global stage? Apart from asking when in a crowded global schedule such an event might take place, you’d have to largely accept the premise behind hosting such an event. With Japanese racing in rude health, it’s not obvious such an idea would generate traction.

JHJW Japan Away Disadvantage.pdf

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Next Steps

If you have enjoyed this article or would like to know more in particular about how AI and analytics can help you in horse racing please contact us at company@jhjwconsulting.com.

References

[1] Source information on request.