Are British 2YO Races Competitive Enough?

Abstract

In December 2025 the BHA issued a press release [1] focussing on changes to the 2yo race programme for 2026. The press release included the following statement: The spring programme will also include a higher percentage of Restricted races over 5 and 6 furlongs compared with 2025, with a corresponding reduction in Open opportunities.

Restricted races exist to give horses with lesser pedigrees and/or sales prices an opportunity to show form against horses with similar profiles. Sales prices and/or sire yearling median prices are used to determine the eligibility of horses to run in such races. Open maidens/novices carry no such restriction. They are open to all.

This paper examines the changes made by comparing field sizes, ratings achieved & the extent to which winning form carries over from one race to the next in 2025 & then in 2026. Our analysis shows that field sizes have fallen in both open and restricted races. The primary reasons are falling horse numbers in open races and an increased number of restricted races taking place because of race division. Turning to repeatability, we find that the percentage of next time out (NTO) winners has fallen in 2026 vs. 2025 for both open & restricted race types. Winning form appears less reliable in 2026 compared with 2025.

We link these results together and trace them back to the increase in the proportion of restricted maidens run in the first half of the 2026 flat season.

1 Data & Method

Throughout this analysis we use racing results up to Sunday 10th August in 2025 and up to Sunday 9th August in 2026. We collect race-by-race field sizes and ratings (RPR), and aggregate to averages & medians by race eligibility bucket, with buckets defined to be either Open or Restricted maidens/novices. Novice races allow winners to participate, usually with a weight penalty. Divided races are those with more than 18 declarations that were allowed to divide into two or more divisions. Thus a race with 20 declarations would be able to divide into two races with 10 runners. Race division can only take place when various BHA-specified criteria are met.

2 Maiden & Novice Race Summary Statistics

Table 1 shows aggregate figures for GB by race eligibility and year: total races run, number of divisions, how many individual horses ran and total number of runs, as well as average field sizes. We also show the number of ‘small field’ races, which we define as those with 4 or fewer runners.

Table 1. GB Maiden & Novice Summary Statistics

There is a fall of 4% in the number of individual horses running in open races, with number in restricted races essentially unchanged. The brunt of falls in the horse population has been felt in open races. Whilst the number of open races taking place is largely unchanged, more restricted races have been run, almost entirely driven by those races dividing. We see that for open races average field sizes fell from 7.3 in 2025 to 7.1 in 2026, driven by fewer horses participating in roughly the same number of open races. For restricted races we observe a similar drop, from 9.3 to 9.1 with a different underlying reason for the drop, namely more races taking place because of race division. Concomitant with field size falls note the substantial increase in the number of small field open races (25 of them) that have taken place in 2026. By comparison Ireland has only a handful of small field 2yo maidens run each year.

3 Changes In Field Sizes

We can see from the table that the number of individual horses that ran in restricted races increased slightly and the number running in open races fell. We might have expected this given the increased number of restricted races being run. We also know the BHA budgeted for broadly similar numbers of races to be run. So what happened? Race division kicked in, so what could have been large field (10+ runners) maidens were replaced with two divisions of 9 or so runners. Two winners when without division we’d have had just one. An obvious reduction in competitiveness in GB racing. There is a downside to not dividing races, which is horses are balloted out. However, given the large number of maiden & novice 2yo races that take place in GB, this is not a serious issue. Like London buses, another GB maiden is coming along very soon. In summary, the twin effects of increasing the number of restricted races relative to open and allowing those races to divide because of over-subscription, has caused field sizes (FS) to fall in both GB open & restricted maidens in 2026.

4 How Well Do Winners Progress?

Table 2 below shows rating & performance statistics for maiden winners on their next start. Ratings for the races won are also shown. Races are split by year and eligibility. Over 200 winning horses ran again in each year, a small increase in 2026 versus 2025. Around 62% of them, 425 horses, ran again.

Table 2. Next Time Out Statistics

4.1 Changes in Ratings

For open maidens/novice winners, median ratings increase by 2lbs in both years, from 80 to 82. For restricted races there is a 1lb drop in 2026 versus a 1lb increase in 2025. There is a marked drop when using averages in restricted races, with a fall in 2026 of 4.2lbs versus a drop of 0.3lbs in 2025.

A concern with comparing ratings across years is that the ratings themselves could be mis-specified. For example, open maidens have the same average rating of 80.1 in both years, despite field sizes being 0.2 runners lower in 2026. This ought to flow through into weaker ratings being awarded, but it has not, probably because the same race standards were applied to winners across both years.

4.2 Changes in Subsequent Win Rates

To circumvent these concerns, we can examine the extent to which winners go on to win next time out (NTO). For open maidens, NTO win rates fall from 22.4% in 2025 to 19.5% in 2026. For restricted maidens falls are from 23.5% to 17.9%. 2 These falls are compelling evidence that 2026 has seen a substantial increase in the proportion of winners of maidens/novices that do not repeat their form NTO, and that both open and restricted races are affected, with the effect in restricted races particularly marked.

It’s instructive to compare these results with those from Ireland. In 2026 winners of Irish maidens saw an 8lbs increase in median rating NTO, winning 26.7% of the time NTO. These numbers are radically different from those we see in GB. Not only is Irish maiden winning form more repeatable than GB, but the progression winners show by reference to ratings is also substantially higher. The prices that 2yo horses placed in Curragh maidens realise in private sales compared with those achieved by winners of restricted maiden/novice races in GB underlines this point. Buyers place more trust in Irish 2yo maiden form.

5 Discussion

Do these results matter? Horse racing is supposed to be competitive. It is its raison d’être. British racing characterises itself as being amongst the best in the world. Our 2yo race programme should reflect that characterisation, and currently it does not, with too many opportunities for easy wins in small field races. Two examples of this are the wide margin wins of Wild Blossom in a 4-runner Carlisle open novice and Ruler’s Pride in a 3-runner Ayr open maiden in May 2026 prior to them running at the Royal meeting. Small field wide margin winners with almost no previous form present a challenge to rate correctly. Ratings assigned to such winners are likely to be upwardly biased. We see this in the lack of ratings progression in GB maiden/novice winners on their next run, in direct contrast with the progression seen in Irish maiden winners.

The Royal Ascot & Glorious Goodwood Festivals contain a significant number of 2yo Group & Listed races that are an important starting point in the Pattern, and the 2yo maiden/novice race programme should be designed, in part, to ensure that those races are as competitive as possible.

In common with many sports, horse racing relies on inter-connected form lines. Handicappers, race planners, end of year classifications, punters all use them. Alongside the heuristic approaches used in sports to classify and rank participants, a number of theoretical approaches & models have also been developed, with many professional sports bettors using such methods [1].

We can ask various what-if questions of such theoretical models [1]. What if some race winners are systematically over rated? What if there are increasingly smaller field sizes? What if these effects are related? The answers to these questions are summarised below:

• The effects ripple throughout the system

• Some groups of horses are over-rated, others under-rated, with the magnitude of the bias determined by the proximity of any particular horse to those over- or under- rated

• The proportion of highest ranked horses is too high, with the effect compounded by lack of inter-connecting races

• The effects can be difficult to spot, particularly at the start of the process

The analysis contained in this paper is consistent with the answers to these what-if questions. In the next section we consider changes that could be made to the British 2yo race programme to increase its competitiveness.

6 Conclusions & Recommendations

Since we cannot change the number of fixtures/races taking place in Britain, any changes must be to race conditions, which is the route followed by the BHA in its December 2025 press release [1].

The following changes have two objectives- to increase field sizes and improve competitiveness. We suggest the following changes:

• Alter the ratio of open to restricted maidens/novices to be 75% open & 25% restricted until 31st July of each year, and remove the option of race division for such races. This change will likely increase field sizes in restricted races, increasing their competitiveness. Examination of Table 2 above shows this is sorely needed.

• All restricted races to become ‘Band A’, with increasing weight allowances for horses that would previously have qualified for races in bands B, C & D. Thus all horses eligible for restricted races will be able to compete against each other, improving the connectivity between races.

• Reclassify a significant number of open maidens as ‘newcomer races’ available only for unraced horses, and introduce a 3lbs allowance for all unraced 2yo competing in open maiden/novice races where conditions state you can have run previously. If you qualify for restricted races, the unraced allowance is doubled to 6lbs. ‘Newcomer races’ are likely to become those with the strongest form since unraced allowances are available and connections will have to weigh participation against an allowance they would receive in non-newcomer races.

• Remove open declarations for 2yo maiden/novice races. Currently connections can see what horses are declared in each race. With so many race options in front of connections, this inevitably leads to horses avoiding each other. Whilst this ‘After you, Claude’ behaviour always took place informally between some connections, others didn’t care, thus removal of open declarations should increase competitiveness because it increases the chances that good horses will end up racing against each other in maiden/novice company.

The biggest effect of this change falls on the connections of horses eligible for restricted races. They can still choose to run in restricted races, but they will know these races will have full fields and likely to be more competitive, as well as more likely to be balloted out. Hence the option to run in open company with a substantial allowance on debut. For horses with Royal Ascot & Glorious Goodwood in mind, if they run well, they will have shown they are competitive in open company, lifting the overall level of competitiveness of open races by virtue of their participation.

Next Steps

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References

[1] Source information on request.